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This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?

A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.

The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.

The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.

The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?

The purpose of this paper is to investigate and quantify the impact of product complexity, including architectural complexity, on operator learning, productivity and quality performance in both assembly and disassembly operations. This topic has not been extensively investigated in previous research.

An extensive experimental campaign involving 84 operators was conducted to repeatedly assemble and disassemble six different products of varying complexity to construct productivity and quality learning curves. Data from the experiment were analysed using statistical methods.

The human learning factor of productivity increases superlinearly with the increasing architectural complexity of products, i.e. from centralised to distributed architectures, both in assembly and disassembly, regardless of the level of overall product complexity. On the other hand, the human learning factor of quality performance decreases superlinearly as the architectural complexity of products increases. The intrinsic characteristics of product architecture are the reasons for this difference in learning factor.

The results of the study suggest that considering product complexity, particularly architectural complexity, in the design and planning of manufacturing processes can optimise operator learning, productivity and quality performance, and inform decisions about improving manufacturing operations.

While previous research has focussed on the effects of complexity on process time and defect generation, this study is amongst the first to investigate and quantify the effects of product complexity, including architectural complexity, on operator learning using an extensive experimental campaign.

Uncertainty management (UM) in projects has been a point of attention for researchers for many years. Research on UM has mainly been aimed at uncertainty analyses in the front-end and managing uncertainty in the construction phase. In contrast, UM components in the design phase have received less attention. This research aims to improve knowledge about the key components of UM in the design phase of large road projects.

This study adopted a literature review and case study. The literature review was used to identify relevant criteria for UM. These criteria helped to design the interview guide. Multiple case study research was conducted, and data were collected through document study and interviews with project stakeholders in two road projects. Each case's owners, contractors and consultants were interviewed individually.

The data analysis obtained helpful information on the involved parties, process and exploit tools and techniques during the design phase. Johansen's (2015) framework [(a) human and organisation, (b) process and (c) tools and techniques)] was completed and developed by identifying relevant criteria (such as risk averse or risk-taker, culture and documentation level) for each component. These criteria help to measure UM performance. The authors found that owners and contractors are major formal UM actors, not consultants. Empirical data showed the effectiveness of Web-based tools in UM.

The studied cases were Norwegian, and this study focussed on uncertainties in the project's design phase. Relevant criteria did not cover all the criteria for evaluating the performance of UM. Qualitative evaluation of criteria allows further quantitative analysis in the future.

This paper gave project owners and managers a better understanding of relevant criteria for measuring UM in the owners and managers' projects. The paper provides policy-makers with a deeper understanding of creating rigorous project criteria for UM during the design phase. This paper also provides a guideline for UM in road projects.

This research gives a holistic evaluation of UM by noticing relevant criteria and criteria's interconnection in the design phase.

The total defence (TD) concept constitutes a joint endeavour between the military forces and civil defence structures within a TD state. Logistics is essential for such joint collaboration to work; however, the mismatch between military and civil defence logistics structures poses challenges for such joint collaboration. The purpose of this paper is to identify logistics concept areas within the TD framework that allow for military and civil defence collaborations from a logistics operations perspective.

Pattern-matching analysis is used to compare patterns found in the investigated case with those prescribed from the literature and predicted to occur. The study seeks to identify logistics concepts within TD from the literature and from the events describing the Swedish response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Pattern matching thus allows for the reconciliation of logistics concepts from the literature to descriptions of how the response was handled, albeit under a TD framework.

Findings show quite distinct foci between the theoretical and observational realms in terms of logistics applications. While the theoretical realm identifies four main logistics concepts, the observational realm identifies five logistics conceptual themes. This goes on to show an incongruence between the military and civil parts of the TD.

This study provides basis for further research into the applications and management of logistics activity within TD and emergency response.

Logistics applications within TD have not, until now, received much attention in the literature. Given this knowledge gap, this study is of original value.

This study investigates the relationship between the Chief Executive Officer's (CEO) overconfidence and financial reporting complexity in Iran, a context characterized by weak corporate governance and heightened managerial discretion.

The sample consists of 1,445 firm-year observations from 2010 to 2021. CEO overconfidence (CEOOC) is evaluated using an investment-based index, specifically capital expenditures. Financial reporting complexity (Complexity) is measured through textual features, particularly three readability measures (Fog, SMOG and ARI) extracted from annual financial statements. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is employed to test the research hypothesis.

Results suggest that CEOOC is positively related to Complexity, leading to reduced readability. Additionally, robustness analyses demonstrate that the relationship between CEOOC and Complexity is more distinct and significant for firms with lower profitability than those with higher profitability. This implies that overconfident CEOs in underperforming firms tend to increase complexity. Also, firms with better financial performance present a more positive tone in their annual financial statements, reflecting their superior performance. The findings remain robust to alternative measures of CEOOC and Complexity and are consistent after accounting for endogeneity issues using firm fixed-effects, propensity score matching (PSM), entropy balancing approach and instrumental variables method.

This study adds to the literature by delving into the effect of CEOs' overconfidence on financial reporting complexity, a facet not thoroughly investigated in prior studies. The paper pioneers the use of textual analysis techniques on Persian texts, marking a unique approach in financial reporting and a first for the Persian language. However, due to the inherent challenges of text mining and feature extraction, the results should be approached with caution.

The insights from this study can guide investors in understanding the potential repercussions of CEOOC on financial reporting complexity. This will assist them in making informed investment decisions and monitoring the financial reporting practices of their invested companies. Policymakers and regulators can also reference this research when formulating policies to enhance financial reporting quality and ensure capital market transparency. The innovative application of textual analysis in this study might spur further research in other languages and contexts.

This research stands as the inaugural study to explore the relationship between CEOs' overconfidence and financial reporting complexity in both developed and developing capital markets. It thereby broadens the extant literature to include diverse capital market environments.

Research in this field is becoming increasingly clear that a teacher residency program (TRP) has a strong potential for developing effective teachers in a teacher preparation context. There are specific features of a TRP that yield results in the development of teachers. However, there are often barriers to full implementation of a TRP that schools and university partnerships must consider and resolve. The purpose of this article is to disseminate the lessons we have learned and processes we have developed in navigating the barriers and complexities of shifting toward a TRP.

The university faculty members with a dual role as Professional Development School (PDS) liaisons examine, reflect on, and present their multiyear process of moving from an undergraduate traditional teacher preparation model to a teacher residency model.

In response to the barriers of funding, defining roles and responsibilities, and changes in leadership, we developed an undergraduate residency blueprint to navigate these challenges productively. One of the goals of this document is to provide clarity for all stakeholders as well as be a transparent solution for leadership transitions. The blueprint serves as a guide for the details of residency program design.

In movement toward a TRP, there are often barriers to full implementation that schools and university partnerships must consider and resolve. This article provides a model for partnerships seeking to navigate teacher residency work.

This paper shows how the interplay between organisational resilience and environmental complexity justifies the existence of differentiated yet successful approaches to digital transformation.

A multi-case method is applied to test our research hypotheses by contrasting the digital transformation of three Italian companies in the valves industry.

Different combinations of technological and organisational tools, hence diversified digital transformations, can be successful, provided that they are supported by a coherent set of resilience factors and allow for the implementation of strategic approaches aligned with the resilience capacity of the firm.

Awareness that resilience capacity shapes digital transformation and the strategies available to engage with external complexity should focus managers to invest in the alignment and the reinforcement of the factors underlying organisational resilience.

Most literature so far focused on the antecedents to digital transformation. In contrast, this paper focuses on the transformation process and highlights how the resilience capacity of the firm affects the unfolding of digital transformation and the emergence of diversified yet successful paths. In addition, in contrast with a dichotomous approach to external complexity this paper shows that digital transformation involves a mix of complexity reduction and complexity absorption strategies.

Testing business processes is crucial to assess the compliance of business process models with requirements. Automating this task optimizes testing efforts and reduces human error while also providing improvement insights for the business process modeling activity. The primary purposes of this paper are to conduct a literature review of Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) testing and formal verification and to propose the Business Process Evaluation and Research Framework for Enhancement and Continuous Testing (bPERFECT) framework, which aims to guide business process testing (BPT) research and implementation. Secondary objectives include (1) eliciting the existing types of testing, (2) evaluating their impact on efficiency and (3) assessing the formal verification techniques that complement testing.

The methodology used is based on Kitchenham's (2004) original procedures for conducting systematic literature reviews.

Results of this study indicate that three distinct business process model testing types can be found in the literature: black/gray-box, regression and integration. Testing and verification approaches differ in aspects such as awareness of test data, coverage criteria and auxiliary representations used. However, most solutions pose notable hindrances, such as BPMN element limitations, that lead to limited practicality.

The databases selected in the review protocol may have excluded relevant studies on this topic. More databases and gray literature could also be considered for inclusion in this review.

Three main originality aspects are identified in this study as follows: (1) the classification of process model testing types, (2) the future trends foreseen for BPMN model testing and verification and (3) the bPERFECT framework for testing business processes.

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

This study aims to introduce an alternative model, “volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), Virtue and Vice” (3V’s), to unleash leadership skills, promote organisational collaborative change and impact sales performance during an unprecedented crisis.

The methodology outlines action research based on the 3V’s model and its application in an international business-to-business sales organisation during Covid-19. It explores alternative paths informed by play-at-work and Plato’s philosophy applied to work-based-learning. Each action/iteration adds to the model, which becomes more likely appropriate for various situations.

The 3V’s boosted change implementation and improved sales performance. The 3V’s conceptualised an invitation to immerse oneself in the constant “river of change” (VUCA) and a means of understanding the role of leadership in navigating this change by embracing simple rules: searching for justice (Virtue) and overcoming the barrier of public opinion (Vice).

The 3V’s model is grounded in leadership literature and a sole application, providing real international data relevant to organisations and leaders. This has yet to be evaluated further.

3V’s can enhance the understanding of a leading collaborative change and re-frame team dynamics in post-pandemic times for the broader public.

The approach advocated is a practice of “swimming alongside the team”, which should enable empowerment and collaboration rather than a top-down direction. Focussing on leaders who are moral people, this approach becomes a differentiator in a digital world.

This study examines Plato’s philosophy, play-at-work and other leadership theories in a model which prepares organisations to respond to crisis by providing the ability to reflect on human aspects and straightforward, transferable skills.