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The sensitivity and fragility of the construction industry’s economic system make the economic resilience of the construction industry (ERCI) a key concern for stakeholders and decision-makers. This study aims to measure the ERCI, identify the heterogeneity and spatial differences in ERCI, and provide scientific guidance and improvement paths for the industry. It provides a foundation for the implementation of resilience policies in the construction industry of developing countries in the future.

The comprehensive index method, Theil index method, standard deviation ellipse method and geographic detector model are used to investigate the spatial differences, spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors of the ERCI from 2005 to 2020 in China.

The ERCI was “high in the east and low in the west”, and Jiangsu has the highest value with 0.64. The Theil index of ERCI shows a wave downward pattern, with significant spatial heterogeneity. The overall difference in ERCI is mainly caused by regional differences, with the contribution rates being higher by more than 70%. Besides, the difference between different regions is increasing. The ERCI was centered in Henan Province, showing a clustering trend in the “northeast-southwest” direction, with weakened spatial polarization and a shrinking distribution range. The market size, input level of construction industry factors, industrial scale and economic scale are the main factors influencing economic resilience. The interaction between each influencing factor exhibits an enhanced relationship, including non-linear enhancement and dual-factor enhancement, with no weakening or independent relationship.

Exploring the spatial differences and driving factors of the ERCI in China, which can provide crucial insights and references for stakeholders, authorities and decision-makers in similar construction economic growth leading to the economic growth of the national economy context areas and countries.

The construction industry development is the main engine for the national economy growth of most developing countries. This study establishes a comprehensive evaluation index on the resilience measurement and analyzes the spatial effects, regional heterogeneity and driving factors on ERCI in the largest developing country from a dynamic perspective. Moreover, it explores the multi-factor interaction mechanism in the formation process of ERCI, provides a theoretical basis and empirical support for promoting the healthy development of the construction industry economy and optimizes ways to enhance and improve the level of ERCI.

Traditional grey models are integer order whitening differential models; these models are relatively effective for the prediction of regular raw data, but the prediction error of irregular series or shock series is large, and the prediction effect is not ideal.

The new model realizes the dynamic expansion and optimization of the grey Bernoulli model. Meanwhile, it also enhances the variability and self-adaptability of the model structure. And nonlinear parameters are computed by the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm.

Establishing a prediction model based on the raw data from the last six years, it is verified that the prediction performance of the new model is far superior to other mainstream grey prediction models, especially for irregular sequences and oscillating sequences. Ultimately, forecasting models are constructed to calculate various energy consumption aspects in Chongqing. The findings of this study offer a valuable reference for the government in shaping energy consumption policies and optimizing the energy structure.

It is imperative to recognize its inherent limitations. Firstly, the fractional differential order of the model is restricted to 0 < a < 2, encompassing only a three-parameter model. Future investigations could delve into the development of a multi-parameter model applicable when a = 2. Secondly, this paper exclusively focuses on the model itself, neglecting the consideration of raw data preprocessing, such as smoothing operators, buffer operators and background values. Incorporating these factors could significantly enhance the model’s effectiveness, particularly in the context of medium-term or long-term predictions.

This contribution plays a constructive role in expanding the model repertoire of the grey prediction model. The utilization of the developed model for predicting total energy consumption, coal consumption, natural gas consumption, oil consumption and other energy sources from 2021 to 2022 validates the efficacy and feasibility of the innovative model.

These findings, in turn, provide valuable guidance and decision-making support for both the Chinese Government and the Chongqing Government in optimizing energy structure and formulating effective energy policies.

This research holds significant importance in enriching the theoretical framework of the grey prediction model.

The highlights of the paper are as follows:

1. A novel grey Bernoulli prediction model is proposed to improve the model’s structure.

2. Fractional derivative, fractional accumulating generation operator and Bernoulli equation are added to the new model.

3. The proposed model can achieve full compatibility with the traditional mainstream grey prediction models.

4. Energy consumption in Chongqing verifies that the performance of the new model is much better than that of the traditional grey models.

5. The research provides a reference basis for the government to formulate energy consumption policies and optimize energy structure.

A novel grey Bernoulli prediction model is proposed to improve the model’s structure.

Fractional derivative, fractional accumulating generation operator and Bernoulli equation are added to the new model.

The proposed model can achieve full compatibility with the traditional mainstream grey prediction models.

Energy consumption in Chongqing verifies that the performance of the new model is much better than that of the traditional grey models.

The research provides a reference basis for the government to formulate energy consumption policies and optimize energy structure.