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In further conceptualizing a novel generative knowledge management system (KM/KMS), this paper aims to focus on identifying and mitigating the risks related to its envisaged scaling from a prototype to an application with a rapidly growing user base.

It follows up on prior publications using design science research (DSR) methodologies in compliance with theory effectiveness, a principle expecting system designs to be purposeful in terms of utility and communication. The KMS perspective taken prioritizes a decentralizing agenda benefiting knowledge workers while also aiming to foster a fruitful co-evolution with conventional organizational KM approaches.

The utilization and further extension of the CKDT and a “scalable innovation” heuristic are assisting the detecting of potential scaling risks related to the logics and logistics, generative interoperability, technological capacitating, knowledge dynamics and value chain which further validates the viability of the proposed KM concept and system.

Although the prototype development is still in progress, the paper conforms to the DSR practice to report on early visions of technology impact on users, organizations and society but also reflects on expectations of viability, desirability and commitment, as well as the system’s prospect as a general-purpose-technology or disruptive innovation.

In addition to the novel KM-related perspectives, the paper’s practical emphasis on the scaling of more complex systems is rarely dealt with in the literature due to the respective projects’ often large-scale collaborative nature, broad methodological scope and diverse stakeholders’ interests. In this case, the task is eased as prior DSR outputs can be referred to.

This study aims to propose a non-linear model to describe the effect of macroeconomic shocks on delinquency rates of three kinds of bank loans. Indeed, a wealth of literature has recognized significant evidence of the linkage between macro conditions and credit vulnerability, perceiving the importance of the high amount of bad loans for economic stagnation and financial vulnerability.

Generally, this linkage was represented by linear relationships, but the strong dependence of bank loan default on the economic cycle, subject to changes in regime, could suggest non-linear models as more appropriate. Indeed, macroeconomic variables affect the performance of bank’s portfolio loan, but such a relationship is subject to changes disturbing the stability of parameters along the time. This study is an attempt to model three different kinds of bank loan defaults and to forecast them in the case of the USA, detecting non-linear and asymmetric behaviors by the adoption of a Markov-switching (MS) approach.

Comparing it with the classical linear model, the authors identify evidence for the presence of regimes and asymmetries, changing in correspondence of the recession periods during the span of 1987–2017.

The data are at a quarterly frequency, and more observations and more extended research periods could ameliorate the MS technique.

The good forecasting performance of this model could be applied by authorities to fine-tune their policies and deal with different types of loans and to diversify strategies during the different economic trends. In addition, bank management can refer to the performance of macroeconomic conditions to predict the performance of their bad loans.

The authors show a clear outperformance of the MS model concerning the linear one.