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South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

Russian LNG sales will be stymied by a lack of tankers

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RUSSIA

Russia’s gas export strategy is predicated on the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Following the collapse of pipeline gas sales to Europe, Russia’s plans to…

Opposition win portends policy gridlock in Seoul

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SOUTH KOREA

The ruling conservative People Power Party (PPP) will take scant consolation from avoiding an opposition supermajority, as it needed a win to take control of the assembly and…

Czech-Slovak rift may limit Visegrad effectiveness

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CZECH/SLOVAKIA

The unprecedented move is the first rift since the two countries peacefully parted more than three decades ago. It came soon after the Visegrad Four (V4) of Czechia, Hungary…

Israel will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation

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ISRAEL

The assault caused almost no damage after a combined air defence including the United States and other allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles. Nonetheless, it was Iran’s…

Iran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion

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IRAN

Iran’s increasingly skilled sanctions evasion (aided by less intense US enforcement) has made it the second-largest contributor to higher global oil output over the past year…

Plans for North African unity could be short-lived

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NORTH AFRICA

On April 22, Tunisian President Kais Saied hosted his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and the head of Libya’s Presidential Council, Mohammed al-Menfi, for a trilateral…

Mexico will be a key player in US-China trade tensions

Location:

MEXICO

However, it appears to have done so in no small part due to geopolitics rather than the strength of its own economy. Chinese investments and Mexican imports of Chinese products…

Ecuador referendum raises Noboa re-election doubts

Location:

ECUADOR

Noboa’s order earlier this month to remove former Vice-President Jorge Glas (2013-17) forcibly from Mexico’s Quito embassy intensified opposition to his government from the…

Outlook is bright for key leftist leader in Sri Lanka

Location:

SRI LANKA

According to the constitution, the poll must take place in September-October. The JVP was formed as a Marxist-Leninist party. Recent opinion polling suggests Dissanayake would be…