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This paper critically analyses major shifts in the UAE's public and economic policy, particularly examining the transition from oil dependency to diversification and then to sustainability and resilience. It aims to provide insight into the facilitators, inhibitors and future of sustainable development in the UAE.

The paper reviews evidence on diversification resistance, the resource trap and sustainable development, and draws attention to the dynamics of policy reform in the UAE, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.

The findings of this study indicate that not all patterns of diversification result in sustainable development and resilient economies. The evidence also suggests that achieving sustainable and resilient growth does not necessarily come at the cost of economic prosperity. After decades of extraordinary diversification, the UAE's economic policy has undergone a paradigm shift. Years of fluctuating oil revenues, increasingly globalised markets, environmental obligations and significant recent structural changes in energy markets have paved the way for a new emphasis on sustainable diversification and economic resilience.

The paper provides novel insight on the UAE's transition to a sustainable and resilient economy and contributes to the current public policy debate about the future of economic policies in the UAE on sustainable diversification initiatives and the trade-offs that emerge from embracing sustainable diversification and economic resilience goals.

This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth.

As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution.

The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth.

The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.