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Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

Alcides J. Padilla and Jorge David Quintero Otero

The purpose of this paper is to assess sub-national business cycle (BC) synchronization's impact on national cycles in four emerging markets economies with inflation targeting…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess sub-national business cycle (BC) synchronization's impact on national cycles in four emerging markets economies with inflation targeting (IT-EMEs): Brazil, Colombia, South Korea and Mexico.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use panel data models with fixed-effects and distributed lags.

Findings

The authors disclosed that sub-national synchronization increased national cycle amplitudes during expansion and recession phases. The authors also noticed that South Korea exhibited a more pronounced effect compared to Latin American countries, and this seemed to be associated with differences in the homogeneity of the production structures in the regions of these countries.

Research limitations/implications

The authors cautioned that contrasting the findings with prior research on the effects of regional BC synchronization in IT-EMEs or with studies in different geographical contexts, is not possible due to the absence of prior research endeavors with this specific focus.

Originality/value

This study constitutes a first attempt to explain the impact of subnational cycle synchronization on the magnitude of national cycles in four IT-EMEs.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 September 2018

Alcides J. Padilla and Alexander Garrido

The purpose of this paper is to explore the causes that determine the UK’s civilian research and development (R&D) expenditure to forecast its possible evolution in a post-Brexit…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the causes that determine the UK’s civilian research and development (R&D) expenditure to forecast its possible evolution in a post-Brexit scenario.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the Johansen’s co-integration analysis for time series.

Findings

The authors find a co-integration relationship between R&D and variables such as exports, military expenditure, patents, EU GDP per capita and USA GDP per capita. The authors also observed a stagnation in the foreseen R&D expenditure over the next five years.

Research limitations/implications

The authors warned that the results can only be viewed as a glance into the understanding of the complex elements that undergird the UK’s civilian, scientific and technological policy-making. But the authors see them as an interesting starting point for scrutinizing current shortcomings in policy-making, while providing clues for corrective action that would otherwise lead the UK to a structural crisis in its economic performance.

Originality/value

This study constitutes a first attempt to account for the loss of the UK’s innovative influence all over the world.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 February 2022

Alcides Padilla and Jorge David Quintero Otero

This article offers a review of the literature on regional business cycles (BCs) in emerging economies. The objective is synthesizing the existing studies based on theoretical…

Abstract

Purpose

This article offers a review of the literature on regional business cycles (BCs) in emerging economies. The objective is synthesizing the existing studies based on theoretical, empirical and methodological approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological framework includes the following stages: research questions, bibliography location, the selection of articles and the evaluation of the literature, analysis and synthesis, and the reporting and use of results.

Findings

The evidence suggests that expansionary phases last longer than recessions'; public expenditure shows a pro-cyclical behavior; and factors such as productive structure and international trade explain the synchronization of regional BCs.

Originality/value

Up until now, there is no research that performs a review of regional BCs in emerging economics.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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