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Prospects for the global economy in H2 2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Labour and housing markets are slowing very gradually, but the strength of services is preventing a faster fall in headline inflation. The pass-through effects of interest-rate…

New Irish leader will struggle to reverse polls

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IRELAND

Harris replaces Leo Varadkar, who surprisingly announced that he was stepping down ahead of local, EU and national elections. In his first speech as party leader, Harris suggested…

China’s population will continue to shrink

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CHINA

Policies in the 1980s to restrict the birth rate gave China a demographic dividend, with an enlarged working population driving GDP growth, but that has been exhausted. The…

Iran will temporise over the broken pensions system

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IRAN

The country’s system of pension funds has long been close to bankruptcy, but awareness of the urgency of the issue has increased over the past year. Nonetheless, proposed pension…

China’s demographic crisis may not be so urgent

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CHINA

He said that China faces "new situations" in the structure of its population, and must maintain an "appropriate" birth rate and improve the "quality" of the population. This…

Chilean government's pension 'win' will prove limited

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CHILE

However, its key provision -- an increase in the system’s defined contribution -- was rejected by the Lower House. The government will have to negotiate key parts of the bill…

Uruguay's challenges mount despite pension reform win

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URUGUAY

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had already raised Uruguay’s rating to BBB+, with a stable outlook, citing “prudent fiscal management”, but warning of still-high inflation. Despite…

Ageing will drive social care demands in Latin America

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LATIN AMERICA

Latin America’s population is ageing rapidly amid declining birth rates and rising life expectancy. This is driving a need for urgent action to prevent demographic changes…

Mexico’s poverty approach will prolong mixed results

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MEXICO

The paper highlights the labour system’s role in perpetuating poverty in Mexico, where more than half of the economically active population is poor despite being employed. The…

Dutch pension reforms face resistance

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NETHERLANDS

The pension system will transition from a ‘defined benefits’ to a ‘defined contribution’ model, which will see pension payments more contingent on employee contributions and stock…