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Risks threaten optimistic Greek growth forecasts

Location:

GREECE

After the 2021-22 post-pandemic rebound, growth is stabilising at around 2%. Barring new external shocks, it is expected to remain at this level in the coming years. Improved…

Commercial property poses risks for narrow focus banks

Location:

EUROPE

Banks in larger EU states are heavily exposed to European and US CRE markets, which have further to fall in 2024. Writedowns are underway, dealing a blow to sentiment and harming…

Gold rally has momentum but miners will miss out

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The 18% increase since the beginning of the year has been fuelled by expectations of monetary easing, recurrent geopolitical tensions, Chinese economic woes, and greater…

Colombia’s economy faces sluggish growth in 2024

Location:

COLOMBIA

Expectations for 2024 suggest lower inflation than last year, but risks persist. The OECD forecasts moderate GDP growth, highlighting inflation and interest rate concerns. Minimum…

Economic improvement in Chile will remain moderate

Location:

CHILE

The figures also indicate that the imbalances created by pandemic-related injections of liquidity in 2000 and 2021 have largely been corrected.

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

Location:

GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Russia's overheating economy will cool

Location:

RUSSIA

Soaring government spending, driven by the war in Ukraine, has pushed economic activity beyond levels many thought possible given the available supply of labour and capital. Yet…

Different demand pictures dominate the outlook for oil

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Markets have largely taken Red Sea trade disruption in their stride. Increased non-OPEC supply is expected this year, leaving the major uncertainty around the impact on demand of…

Paraguay-Brazil Itaipu deal will not ease concerns

Location:

PARAGUAY/BRAZIL

Paraguay will now sell energy from the binational hydroelectric dam to Brazil at a higher price until 2026, after which the price will drop by half. The renegotiation of Annex C…

French government faces a difficult fiscal dilemma

Location:

FRANCE

As a result of dwindling tax revenue, he also said that state spending would be cut by EUR10bn (USD10.8bn). The government’s forecast for this year is more optimistic than…