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Interest rate uncertainty keeps pressure on US bonds

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The Fed and ECB seem set to diverge, with the latter expected to cut rates in June. There is a rising prospect, bolstered by the resilient US labour market and Middle East…

ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation

Location:

EU/US

Disinflation is underway on both sides of the North Atlantic, but it is not yet deeply entrenched, giving both central banks a reason to delay cuts. The ECB must contend with…

Equity markets are more vulnerable than bond markets

Location:

INT

The scope for looser policy remains uncertain given persistent inflationary pressures and the strength of the US labour market, while financial conditions are easier than when the…

Varying economic performance metrics muddy the outlook

Location:

UNITED STATES

Estimates of income rather than output, of household rather than firms' employment, and of real rather than nominal wages often diverge, but the gap has widened since the…

Pace of monetary easing will slow in Eastern Europe

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Central banks in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) have already delivered hefty rate cuts but the ECB move might not herald further loosening. Economic recovery is tepid but inflation…

Asia ‘ex-China’ investment will struggle for traction

Location:

ASIA

There is sizeable demand for financial assets and products in Asia that exclude China. However, investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates…

Stock market rally has firm foundations but also risks

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The US stock market and especially the seven largest technology companies have powered the rally, but markets in Europe and Asia have also risen on better-than-expected economic…

Japan will be a policy pioneer for advanced nations

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

It took policymakers decades to tackle the consequences of the market crash, partly due to conservative caution; this experience has encouraged other states to be more…

Gold rally has momentum but miners will miss out

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The 18% increase since the beginning of the year has been fuelled by expectations of monetary easing, recurrent geopolitical tensions, Chinese economic woes, and greater…

Maintaining Brazil growth will remain a key challenge

Location:

BRAZIL

The reading, above market expectations, was largely supported by higher investment and household consumption amid a more benign environment of falling unemployment, inflation and…