Risk Management in Emerging Markets

Cover of Risk Management in Emerging Markets

Issues, Framework, and Modeling

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(23 chapters)

Prelims

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Part I Framework

Abstract

This chapter investigates the determinants of the volatility of spread in the over-the-counter foreign exchange market and examines whether the relationships differ in the crisis periods. We compute the measures for the volatility of liquidity by using bid-ask spread data sampled at a high frequency of five minutes. By examining 11 currencies over a 13-year sample period, we utilize a balanced dynamic panel regression to investigate whether the risk associated with the currencies quoted or trading activity affects the variability of liquidity provision in the FX market and examine whether the crisis periods have any effect. We find that both the level of spread and volatility of spread increases during the crisis periods for the currencies of emerging countries. In addition, we find increases in risks associated with the currencies proxied by realized volatility during the crisis periods. We also show risks associated with the currency are the major determinants of the variability of liquidity and that these relationships strengthen during periods of uncertainty. First, we develop measures to capture the variability of liquidity. Our measures to capture the variability of liquidity are non-parametric and model-free variable. Second, we contribute to the debate of whether variability of liquidity is adverse to market participants by examining what drives the variability of liquidity. Finally, we analyze seven crisis periods, allowing us to document the effect of the crises on determinants of variability of liquidity over time.

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to investigate the relationship between ethics, risks of compliance failure and strategic value of global responsibility for BRICS companies. The first part of the chapter adopts a theoretical approach: it introduces and analyzes the key role of compliance risk management for sustainable and successful development of companies. The second part of the chapter uses an empirical approach, based on the case study method. The chapter focuses on the BRICS. The chapter demonstrates that mere formal compliance with laws, recommendations, and internal codes is not sufficient for companies that want to be responsible and attract stakeholders’ consent and resources. A shared background of ethical principles is required for a proper understanding of the rules, in order to prevent the risk of compliance failure and limit the global risk exposure of a company. Due to the business perspective adopted in the research, this chapter leaves out the sociological aspects regarding how to create, spread, and strengthen the culture of compliance within a company. The chapter encourages companies to connect ethical principles and compliance with the rules. Indeed, a lack of ethics in business operations, obscured by formal compliance, often results in indirect negative impacts on stakeholder relationships, so it is only a futile attempt to act responsibly. The originality of the chapter consists in suggesting the adoption of a responsibility-oriented approach for compliance risk management.

Abstract

The ratio between share price and current earnings per share, the Price Earning (PE) ratio, is widely considered to be an effective gauge of under/overvaluation of a corporation’s stock. Arguably, a more reliable indicator, the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning ratio or CAPE, can be obtained by replacing current earnings with a measure of permanent earnings i.e. the profits that a corporation is able to earn, on average, over the medium to long run. In this study, we aim to understand the cross-sectional aspects of the dynamics of the valuation metrics across global stock markets including both developed and emerging markets. We use a time varying DCC model to exploit the dynamics in correlations, by introducing the notion of value spread between CAPE and the respective Market Index from 2002 to 2014 for 34 countries. Value spread is statistically significant during the 2008 crisis for asset allocation. The signal can be utilized for better asset allocation as it allows one to interpret the common movements in the stock market for under/overvaluation trends. These estimates clearly indicate periods of misvaluation in our sample. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that the model can provide early warning signs for asset mispricing in real time on a global scale and formation of asset bubbles.

Abstract

This chapter seeks to conceptualize a new approach to the identification of the factors influencing the adoption of a political risk assessment (PRA) function. By making use of firm value maximization and risk aversion and considering the rationale for risk management activities, a number of determinants are identified which can be deployed in future PRA studies. A model for predicting the PRA adoption decision is proposed. Geographical contextualization in one or more emerging markets (EMs) provides a further dimension of originality as well as reflecting an increasingly important international business phenomenon. Political risk (PR) and political risk assessment (PRA) are of increasing importance in the context of the growth and development of emerging markets (EMs). The latter provide opportunities for inward investment from more developed economies. There has also been a rapid growth in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from emerging markets to other economies. This chapter adds to the current understanding of PRA by examining this issue in emerging markets (EMs) through the model developed here.

Abstract

This chapter reassesses the economics of interest rate risk management in light of the global financial crisis by developing a derivative-based integrated treatment of interest rate and credit risk interrelation. The decade-long historical data on credit default swap spreads and interest rate swap rates are used as proxy measures for credit risk and interest rate risk, respectively. An elasticity of interest rate risk and credit risk, considered a function of the business cycle phases, maturity of instruments, economic sector, creditworthiness, and other macroeconomic parameters, is investigated for optimizing economic capital. This chapter sheds light on how financial institutions may address hedge strategies against downside risks implementing the proposed derivative-based integrated treatment of interest rate and credit risk assessment allowing for optimization of interest rate swap contracts. The developed framework of integrated interest rate and credit risk management is of special importance for emerging markets heavily dependent on foreign capital as it potentially allows emerging market banks to improve risk management practices in terms of capital adequacy and Basel III rules. Analyzing diversification versus compounding effects, it allows enhancing financial stability through jointly optimizing Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 economic capital.

Abstract

The analysis considers the use of Benford’s Law as a forensic tool to audit the quality of accounting information reported by banks in emerging market countries. History suggests that lack of financial standards and reporting transparency can ultimately lead to bank failures in these nations. We use the Benford Distribution to analyze the first digits of bank financial statement entries and show the value of accounting standards in producing information of high quality. Benford’s Law maintains that the first digits of an unconstrained, large array of numbers might follow a lognormal pattern. It can be applied, for example, to financial statements issued by banks to infer their data integrity. To illustrate the importance of accounting standards and reporting transparency, the analysis utilizes Russian bank statement data from 2001 to 2011. The main finding is that accounting standards matter. After the Russian Central Bank required all banks to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards in 2004, the financial statement data largely conformed to Benford’s Law. While the Benford distribution can be used to infer the overall quality of bank financial statement data in emerging market countries, it is less effective in spotting troubled banks that commit reporting fraud. One possible reason is that the Benford distribution is scale invariant, and violation of Benford’s Law is a sufficient but not necessary condition for accounting irregularities.

Abstract

This chapter identifies three crisis warning indicators driven from trading in emerging markets’ carry trades, and empirically examines whether these indicators could predict two major financial crises that hit the global financial markets in the last decades — The 1997–1998 Asian crisis and the 2007–2008 global crisis. The probit regression is used to examine the power of the three indicators in forecasting financial crises, using data from eight Asian emerging countries which serve as proxies for emerging markets, independent of the origination of the crisis. I use both fixed effect and random effect estimation to measure crisis impacts. The empirical results show that financial crises could have been predicted. Probit estimation show that carry trade returns can predict a financial crisis, and the estimation results are robust to both panel level and country-level analysis. These three indicators are by no means an exhaustive list of all possible predictors of financial crisis. The literature suggests other fundamental indicators of financial crises such as the current account deficit and foreign debt. However, this chapter cannot fully consider these indicators for lack of data at this point in time. Although financial crisis may be better predicted by the well-known fundamental indicators, the contribution of this chapter is simply that carry trade-related indicators can help in predicting crises.

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter is to review the risks Islamic financial institutions face in an emerging market context, including risk sharing in Islamic financing and Shari’ah (Islamic law) compliance risk. We explore current risk management practices and establish the link between risk management and the financial performance of banks and the efficiency and effectiveness of financial sectors in emerging markets. Because of their distinctive risk profile, Islamic finance institutions face challenges in risk management. We show that Islamic banking is riskier in emerging markets because of the presence of immature money markets, limitations in the availability of lender of last resort facilities, and deficiencies in market infrastructure. There is also no evidence that Islamic banks have developed effective solutions for managing the risks conventional banks face as well as their own unique risks. We suggest that the countries that do this best are those that prioritize the structure of risk management knowledge and capabilities in a single financial regulator.

Abstract

Given the rising need for measuring and controlling of financial risk as proposed in Basel II and Basel III Capital Adequacy Accords, trading risk assessment under illiquid market conditions plays an increasing role in banking and financial sectors, particularly in emerging financial markets. The purpose of this chapter is to investigate asset liquidity risk and to obtain a Liquidity-Adjusted Value at Risk (L-VaR) estimation for various equity portfolios. The assessment of L-VaR is performed by implementing three different asset liquidity models within a multivariate context along with GARCH-M method (to estimate expected returns and conditional volatility) and by applying meaningful financial and operational constraints. Using more than six years of daily return dataset of emerging Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets, we find that under certain trading strategies, such as short selling of stocks, the sensitivity of L-VaR statistics are rather critical to the selected internal liquidity model in addition to the degree of correlation factors among trading assets. As such, the effects of extreme correlations (plus or minus unity) are crucial aspects to consider in selecting the most adequate internal liquidity model for economic capital allocation, especially under crisis condition and/or when correlations tend to switch sings. This chapter bridges the gap in risk management literatures by providing real-world asset allocation tactics that can be used for trading portfolios under adverse markets’ conditions. The approach to computing L-VaR has been arrived at through the application of three distinct liquidity models and the obtained results are used to draw conclusions about the relative liquidity of the diverse equity portfolios.

Part II Applications and Case Studies

Abstract

Does the adoption of the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) improve bank profitability? Does ERM also reduce bank risk? By analyzing a sample of banks located in European emerging markets between 2005 and 2013, the aim of this chapter is to empirically investigate the determinants of firm performance, both in terms of bank profitability and risk, with respect to the adoption of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). In order to capture the effect of the ERM program adoption on banks’ performance, we both use market-based measures as well as accounting-based indexes. Following the seminal literature on the topic (Aebi, Sabato, & Schmid, 2012; Eckles et al., 2014; Ellul & Yerramilly, 2013; Hoyt & Liebenberg, 2003, 2011; Lin, Wen, & Yu, 2012; Pagach & Warr, 2010), we adopt a binary proxy variable, that is, the appointment of a Chief Risk Officer (CRO), to define whether the firm is currently undertaking an ERM program. Our results show that a post-ERM firm experiences an increase in the risk-adjusted profits and a reduction of the overall risk.

Abstract

We study the information content of issuer credit rating changes announced by a group of six Chinese credit rating agencies. We conduct an event study, and we use multivariate regression analyses to identify factors driving abnormal stock returns. Our results confirm prior findings for Western countries that downgrades are associated with significant negative abnormal returns. However, upgrades and positive or negative rating outlooks do not seem to have information content. While we cannot find differences in information content conditional on which rating agency issues the downgrade, we find that abnormal returns may vary with the target firm’s industry. In addition, the magnitude of stock price reactions to rating downgrades seems to be related to the business cycle to some extent. With respect to the role of the industry in explaining the information content of rating changes, our results may be biased due to small sample size. Nevertheless, they illustrate that the role the industry plays in explaining investor behavior may deserve special attention in future research. Our findings imply that new rating information seems to be processed quickly in the Chinese stock market, and that market reactions to rating signals are largely in line with what has been observed for Western stock markets. Both observations lend credibility to observable stock prices. The chapter sheds new light on the relevance of Chinese credit rating agencies from an equity investor’s perspective and confirms similarities between the Chinese and Western stock markets with respect to the way rating signals are processed by investors.

Abstract

It is broadly recognized in China that funding risks due to a lack of sufficient financial support from banks are the most crucial constraints that prevent the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). In developed economies, such as Japan and European countries, the relationship banking business model is commonly used to help support SMEs to deal with funding risks. In this chapter, we investigate whether the relationship banking business model can be applied in China. This chapter uses the results of a unique survey study that was conducted by Professor Hiroyuki Kato of Kobe University and Professor Tang Cheng of Chuo University. They studied 183 SMEs in Zhejiang Province in China. After cleaning the data, the final sample size for this study was 100 firms. Using this data, we estimated the ordered logistic and OLS models to examine several hypotheses regarding relationship banking. We found evidence suggesting that relationship banking can mitigate funding risks for SMEs in China. Our study suggests that, although Chinese banks are still underdeveloped in terms of providing relationship lending, promoting the relationship banking model may be a significant way to resolve the financial difficulties of Chinese SMEs. It is generally very difficult to test hypotheses regarding relationship banking in China because of a lack of relevant data about Chinese SMEs. Due to our unique data set, which contains relevant information directly provided by Chinese SMEs, we can examine these hypotheses.

Abstract

Over the last decade, the Chilean economy has experienced rapid growth, allowing per capita GDP to rise from $10,700 to $19,887. Additionally, the capital markets size increased over 16%. Given this, it is expected that Chile will be considered a developed country by 2020, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Chile is in the initial stages of joining the OECD; a process that is expected to accelerate positive changes in the economy. However, in recent years, publicly traded Chilean firms began to face financial scandals causing the upheaval of the regulatory market structures and initiating environmental legislation. These scandals have consistently occurred across all economic sectors and typically have included companies with large market capitalizations and strong risk management procedures. Nevertheless, these mechanisms have proven unsuccessful due to misinformation or information manipulation. The changes to the Chilean economy can be considered as operational risk to its member firms. These risks typically result from inadequate or failed internal processes or people systems, and/or from external events. The radical changes in this transitional economy and the impact on the differing companies involved are good examples that should provide a warning for emerging market economies trying to implement risk management control systems. Unfortunately, agencies such as the Internal Revenue Service and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States cannot be modeled in the traditional sense in countries similar to Chile. Different authors simplified operational risk management, but this framework is not feasible in emerging economies based solely on the criteria of identification, evaluation, monitoring, and management.

Abstract

We examine how the degree of regional financial integration in African stock markets has evolved over the last eleven years. Despite increasing regional economic cooperation, the process of stock market integration has been slow. To facilitate growth via developed financial markets but keep financial stability risk at a minimum, further regional integration should be promoted, and mild capital controls on non-African investors may be necessary. A Diebold-Yilmaz spillover analysis is applied to ten African stock markets for the period between August 2004 and January 2015. We examine spillovers among four regions and among individual countries. Regional integration, as measured by total spillovers in Africa, is increasing but remains very low. These spillovers were temporarily heightened during the global financial crisis. Cross-regional spillovers are high between Northern and Southern Africa. Asymmetric capital controls on African and non-African investors must be considered to foster further regional integration and to mitigate financial stability risk. This is one of the few studies to address the construction of the future architecture of regionally integrated stock markets in emerging countries.

Abstract

Over the last decade, foreign currency indebtedness in Hungary has become a systemic financial problem, and its crippling impact on the real economy has been aggravated by its significant constraints on economic policy. In international comparative terms, however, there are certain specific features relating to Hungary which make this issue particularly problematic, and during the financial crisis both exchange rates and interest rates were important factors in increasing the burden on individual households. We present here a case study whereby our research focuses on the causes and determining factors of the pricing of Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans. Our empirical exercise examines four potential price shocks which might have affected the pricing decisions of credit institutions: foreign currency interest rates, the country risk premiums (measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread), the deteriorating quality of the loan portfolio and the taxes levied on banks. The questions which arise concern the relationship of these costs to the changes in interest rates and the extent to which these cost shocks were passed on by banks to their clients. Empirical evidence based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) shows a significant long-run relationship between cost factors and CHF denominated mortgage loans interest rates — with a reasonable sign and magnitude of parameters, but also with moderate forecasting power. Finding a tractable solution to the foreign currency debt trap is only possible if a fair distribution of burdens is achieved, and this should be supported by empirical facts. At the end of the day, all three affected parties (debtors, banks, and the Hungarian State) had made their contribution, but how fair and reasonable the distribution was remains an open issue for further research.

Abstract

Intraday volatility characteristics throughout the trading week are examined at the emerging Borsa Istanbul (BIST) stock exchange. Using five-minute (and 15-minute) intervals, accentuated intraday volatility patterns at the microstructure level are examined during the stock market open and close in the morning and in the afternoon sessions. Volatility is highest when markets open in the morning. The second highest is during the afternoon open. The third highest is before the market closes for the day. Volatility before the market close has increased in recent years. These characteristics are seen every trading day. There are also differences: Monday returns are lowest, Friday returns are highest, and Monday morning volatility is highest of the entire trading week. Day-of-the-week and intraday accentuated volatility smile anomalies are jointly investigated using the longest intraday sample period in the emerging country stock exchange literature. Investment companies and professionals can utilize the results for risk management and hedging by avoiding highly volatile opening and closing periods. Arbitrageurs, speculators, and risk takers should trade during these highly volatile periods. Heightened volatility is increased difficulty in price discovery, thus inefficiency. Market participants, exchanges, and public prefer efficient markets. The research presents evidence of trading days, and periods during the trading day, when the exchange becomes more efficient. This is the first research that explores day-of-the-week effect from intraday volatility perspective in an emerging market, and provides useful recommendations in designing risk management strategies at market microstructure level.

Abstract

This chapter aims to determine whether diversification benefits accrue from adding emerging market hedge funds (EMHFs) to an emerging market bond/equity portfolio, and subsequently whether the type of exposure hedge funds provide is justified by their fees. We use multivariate cointegration analysis to show that the advantages of adding hedge funds to balanced portfolios are limited for the three regions of Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, as well as for the entire global emerging market universe. In summary, we find that emerging market hedge funds are generally redundant for diversifying long-only emerging market investment portfolios with long-term investment horizons. This result also holds when we extend our sample by the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 and allow for structural breaks according to the Gregory-Hansen (1996) test. Hence, even during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, when risk diversification was most needed, long-term comovements between hedge funds and traditional assets is, with the exception of the Eastern European region, not disrupted. Because EMHF returns are heavily influenced by the emerging market equity and bond markets, we conclude that the “alpha fees” charged by EMHFs may not always be appropriate for the three main regions under consideration. This also holds, however, to a lesser extent, for a global diversification among hedge funds and traditional assets in emerging markets.

Part III Looking Ahead

Abstract

This chapter discusses the regulatory challenges faced by financial institutions in emerging countries and it presents their specific features compared to financial institutions in developed countries. It offers a practical way of implementing regulatory changes while accounting for emerging countries’ specific features. Using a principle-based approach, this chapter builds on the recent regulatory developments in both developed and developing market economies. It relates these developments to industry best practices as well as the current state of the art in risk management and corporate governance. The findings show how the regulation of financial institutions in emerging countries differs from that in developed countries. Different approaches to mitigate the divergences and fill the gaps are discussed. Both regulators and financial institutions in emerging countries will find this chapter offers a practical point of view based on field and industry experience on how to interpret and apply regulations and adopt best practices in risk management in a way that accounts for emerging countries’ specific features.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate both market concentration and bank competition of banking across six emerging Asian countries (e.g., Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam) over pre and post the 2008 global financial crisis. The conduct parameter approach following the framework suggested by Uchida and Tsutsui (2005) is used to estimate bank competition in these countries. The study employs both seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) to estimate simultaneously the system of equations in our model. Generally we find a negative association between market concentration and bank competition across most of the countries in the study suggesting that banks in concentrated markets collude to generate higher profits. Monopolistic competition was the best description of competitive structure of banking across the majority of countries investigated by this study. The study fills the gap in the banking literature by investigating bank competition, concentration, and their relationship across emerging Asian economies over the 2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, several policy implications for banking industry are suggested.

Abstract

The recent 2008–2009 financial crisis has led international financial authorities to review the existing regulation; the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has been thus induced to review the pillars of the Basel Accord (Basel II) in order to strengthen the risk coverage of capital framework (Basel 2.5 and III). These reforms will help to raise capital requirements for the trading book, which represents a major source of losses for internationally financial institutions, especially during crisis periods. In particular, the Committee has introduced a Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) capital requirement, as a new methodology to evaluate market risk.

This chapter aims to shed some lights on the issues major banks have to face when calculating SVaR in the context of emerging markets, pointing out the differences in adopting an estimation model with respect to another one. Our results show a considerable increase in capital requirements especially when new rules are applied to financial markets with high-risk parameters, such as emerging markets are. The increased cost due to higher capital requirements could be a disincentive to investment in markets with higher risk profiles than the developed markets, taking also into account that diversification benefits deriving from investing in emerging economies have shown a decrease over time. The reduction of institutional investors can thus represent a brake on the process of innovation and evolution of emerging markets.

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to understand effects of the recent crisis on the financial constraints that small and medium size enterprises have experienced in emerging economies. Using the firm level survey data provided by the World Bank, a descriptive analysis is conducted by calculating the average of the financial obstacles that the firms had experienced before and after the crisis, and the existence of statistical difference between the two periods is tested. The results indicate that the small and medium size enterprises suffer more from financial constraints relative to large firms. Financial constraints that the small and medium size firms had experienced are largely affected by the recent global financial crisis, relative to the large firms. However, effects of the financial constraints on real variables such as investment, innovation, and research and development expenditures cannot be examined due to data limitations. This chapter contributes to the limited literature of financial constraints experienced by the small and medium enterprises in emerging economies by taking the effect of the recent global financial crisis into account. The novelty of this chapter comes from the dataset: “The World Bank’s World Business Environment Surveys,” which provides a large sample of emerging countries.

Index

Pages 701-705
Content available
Free Access
Cover of Risk Management in Emerging Markets
DOI
10.1108/9781786354518
Publication date
2016-12-29
Editors
ISBN
978-1-78635-451-8
eISBN
978-1-78635-451-8