Publications

Citation

(2002), "Publications", Foresight, Vol. 4 No. 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs.2002.27304aae.001

Publications

Publications for listing in this section should be sent to Graham May, Reviews Editor, foresight, Principal Lecturer in Futures Research, Leeds Metropolitan University, School of the Built Environment, Brunswick Building, Leeds LS2 8BU, UK.

Note: items including a code (e.g. FS 22:8/373) are abbreviated versions of abstracts selected from Future Survey, published by the World Future Society (for more information see http://www.wfs.org/wfs/fsurv.htm)

2001 State of the Future

Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon (The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, Washington DC, 2001, 91 pp. with CD-ROM)

2020 Global Food Outlook: Trends, Alternatives and Choices

Mark W. Rosegrant, Michael S. Paisner, Seit Meijer and Julie Witcover (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 18 pp.)

A Better World in 2020: Wake-up Calls from the Next Generation: A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment Initiative

Edited by Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Rajul Pandya-Lorch (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 33 pp.)

Agricultural Research and Poverty Reduction

Peter Hazell and Lawrence Haddad (Food, Agriculture and the Environment, Discussion Paper 34, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 41 pp.)

All Connected Now: Life in the First Global Civilization

Walter Truett Anderson (Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 2001, 310 pp., $27.50, FS 23:11/541)

A huge and many-sided evolutionary development is taking place in our time – the flow of forces that are converging to produce a world that is truly one world. This globalization process has emerged as the dominant reality of life in the early twenty-first century. It is not only taking place, but is far larger and more powerful than most people suspect. Most people think of globalization as exclusively or mainly an economic phenomenon. Economic globalization dominates most of the media discussion and the content of widely read books such as The Lexus and the Olive Tree. But globalization involves many different processes, including new communication systems, increased human mobility, the integration of trade and investment, the spread of democracy and human rights, the growing role of NGOs in global politics, and growing concern about global ecological matters and epidemics. It is not only organizations that are changing, but also cultures, ecosystems, and even individual organisms. There are no longer any closed cultural systems in the world, nor any closed biological systems. "We now live in a new world of dynamic open systems, in which boundaries shift, open, fade, even disappear entirely, and new, often strange linkages are made. This new world is the first global civilization, and the opportunities it brings us – for peace, prosperity, progress, rich and endlessly expansive personal lives – are limitless." But to realize these opportunities, we must let go of many old assumptions, agendas, and mental maps that no longer work. The huge wave of systemic change is not totally benign; it creates possibilities for disasters that could not have taken place in a world of stronger frontiers.

Chapters discuss human adaptation strategies of the past, the meanings of the twentieth century (with reference to Kenneth Boulding and Marshall McLuhan), the shift from marketplaces to placeless markets, governance with and without governments, pluralism and "cultural open systems" as the essence of global culture ("not relativism and certainly not homogenization"), the globalization of sport and language, biological globalization ("a much more complex pattern of new connections among ecosystems"), the informatization of global society, the bio-information society (as Gaia becomes cyber-Gaia, with new information about living systems pouring into the world), globalization as a rolling revolution in the shape and nature of organizations (which now must constantly learn), and the global villages, as more and more people become members of multiple communities. After surveying "ideologies after the end of ideology", Anderson proposes four major categories:

1. 1.

   Globalist right: on a roll in the last few decades, viewing economic globalization as the world's best hope; includes technophiles, libertarians, Virginia Postrel's "dynamists", and readers of The Economist.

2. 2.

   Globalist left: more transformationalist than hyperglobalist, and more inclined to consider downsides as well as high promise; includes center-left Third Way thinkers and various movements to build stronger institutions on a global scale.

3. 3.

   Antiglobalist right: nationalist conservatives such as Pat Buchanan, and those who see a clash of civilizations behaving as closed systems.

4. 4.

   Antiglobalist left: the old left of organized labor and welfare-state stalwarts and "the new left of anarchist, anticorporatist, and romantic primitivist sentiments" (represented in the writings of David C. Korten).

Barring any wild card development, rapid technological advances and globalization will continue. Prospects for those who seek to halt technology and globalization are not bright. Regardless of one's cause (environmental protection, animal rights, national unity, religious faith, family values), one is much more likely to succeed by planning courses of action appropriate to a high-tech globalizing society. "Constructive social activism in the twenty-first century carries the obligation to understand this globalizing world and to regard it not as an opportunity or a threat but as a challenge."

Appropriate Technology for Sustainable Food Security

Edited by Per Pinstrup-Andersen (A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment, Focus 7, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 20 pp.)

The Atomic Corporation: A Rational Proposal for Uncertain Times

Roger Camrass and Martin Farncombe (Capstone, Oxford, 2001, 223 pp., £18.99)

Blood in the City: Violence and Revelation in Paris 1789-1945

Richard D.E. Burton (Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 2001, 395 pp., £23.95)

Cloning: Responsible Science or Technomadness?

Edited by Michael Ruse and Aryne Sheppard (Prometheus Books, Amherst, NY, 2001, 300 pp., $19.00)

Crypto Anarchy, Cyberstates, and Pirate Utopias

Edited by Peter Ludlow (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001, 485 pp., £16.95)

Democratising Globalisation: The Leverage of the Tobin Tax

Heikki Patomaki (Zed Books, London, 2001, 260 pp., £15.95)

Digital Storm: Fresh Business Strategies from the Electronic Marketplace

Philipp Gerbert and Alex Birch with Gerd Schnetkamp and Dirk Schneider (Capstone, Oxford, 2001, 340 pp., £18.99)

Empowering Women to Achieve Food Security

Edited by Agnes R. Qisumbing and Ruth S. Meinzen-Dick (A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment, Focus 6, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 24 pp.)

Global Environmental Risk

Edited by Jeanne X. Kasperson and Roger E. Kasperson (United Nations University Press, Tokyo and NY, and Earthscan, London, 2001, 574 pp., $39.95, FS 23:11/539)

Global environmental risk is about threats: potential global warming, ozone depletion, land cover changes, soil depletion, and the continuing loss of biodiversity. On the other hand, growing recognition of the destructive power of humanity promises that the use and occupation of the earth may shift at the millennium to more sustainable trajectories. This book examines ways of identifying, conceptualizing, organizing, and addressing global environmental risk, with an emphasis on five major themes:

1. 1.

   "Global environmental risk is the ultimate threat" (the life-support capabilities of the planet are at stake, and such risk is only partially knowable, controllable, and manageable; humans are not invulnerable, and their actions carry long-term potentials for developing or destroying civilization, as George Perkins March made clear in 1864);

2. 2.

   Uncertainty is a persistent feature in understanding and predicting outcomes (humans must embrace what we do not know, and search through the possibilities for adaptation and social learning);

3. 3.

   Global environmental risk manifests itself in different ways at different spatial scales (thus this book addresses regional variety and expression of risks);

4. 4.

   Vulnerability can often be overcome by science, technology, and political control (but it is equally possible that misapplication of these tools may increase vulnerability or create new risks);

5. 5.

   Futures are not given but must be negotiated (enormous scope exists for creating global futures that are less vulnerable and uncertain).

The 16 chapters are in four sections, each with a four-page introduction:

1. 1.

   Characterizing global environmental risks: international comparisons of environmental hazards (28 problems ranked in terms of consequences, with fresh water quality at the top of the list), the risk transition and developing countries (on changing health risks), global risk and uncertainty (in every age, science takes shape around its leading problems; diverse types of rationality will be needed);

2. 2.

   Vulnerability: assessing vulnerability to global environmental change, assessing which natural environments are most vulnerable to global change, questions of equity and fairness increasingly associated with environmental problems;

3. 3.

   High-risk regions: nine case studies of threatened regions (Amazonia, Basin of Mexico, the North Sea, US Southern High Plains, Aral Sea, etc.), environmental risks in mountain ecosystems, Mexico's vulnerability to drought and climate change, sea-level rise in the Bangladesh and Nile deltas, sea-level rise and the North Sea (the Dutch approach is a model of a well-planned society responding with vigor to a challenge), sea-level rise and the Sea of Japan;

4. 4.

   Global environmental futures: risk and imagining alternative futures, Canada's Sustainable Society Project (by John B. Robinson), social visions of future sustainable societies (nine first-generation global models contrasted).

Global Food Projections to 2020: Emerging Trends and Alternative Futures

Mark W. Rosegrant, Michael S. Paisner, Seit Meijer and Julie Witcover (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 206 pp.)

Globalization: The External Pressures

Edited by Paul Kirkbride (Wiley, Chichester, 2001, 335 pp., £24.95)

Globalization: The Internal Dynamic

Edited by Paul Kirkbride and Karen Ward (Wiley, Chichester, 2001, 364 pp., £24.95)

How Do Central Banks Talk?

Alan Blinder, Charles Goodhart, Philipp Hildebrand, David Lipton and Charles Wyplosz (Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 3, 2001, 122 pp., £25.00)

Internet Future Strategies: How Pervasive Computing Services Will Change the World

Daniel Amor (Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2002, 294 pp., £31.99)

The Internet Galaxy: Reflections on the Internet, Business and Society

Manuel Castells (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2001, 292 pp., £14.99)

The Invisible Future: The Seamless Integration of Technology into Everyday Life

Edited by Peter Denning (McGraw-Hill, New York, 2002, 348 pp., $24.95)

Irresistible Forces: The Business Legacy of Napster and the Growth of the Underground Internet

Trevor Merriden (Capstone, Oxford, 2001, 178 pp., £15.00)

Keeping the Edge: Managing Defense for the Future

Edited by Ashton B. Carter and John P. White (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001, 326 pp., $50.00, FS 23:11/528)

Knowledge Capital and the "New Economy": Firm Size, Performance and Network Production

Pontus Braunerhjelm (Economics of Science, Technology and Innovation, Volume 20, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA, 2000, 118 pp., £62.25)

Knowledge Management and Organizational Competence

Ron Sanchez (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2001, 254 pp., £35.00)

The Laws of the Web: Patterns in the Ecology of Information

Bernado A. Huberman (The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001, 105 pp., £16.95)

Making New Technologies Work for Human Development

(United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2001, Oxford University Press, 2001, 264 pp.)

Management Challenges for Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Theoretical and Applied Perspectives

Edited by Felix M. Edoho (Praeger, Westport, CT, 2001, 304 pp.)

The Myth of the Paperless Office

Abigail J. Sellen and Richard H.R. Harper (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2002, 236 pp., £16.95)

The Nature and Dynamics of Organizational Capabilities

Edited by Giovanni Dosi, Richard R. Nelson and Sidney Winter (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 389 pp., £17.99)

Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy

Edited by John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 2001, 375 pp., $25.00, FS 23:11/531)

The co-authors of a leading-edge paper on cyberwar (1993) and a book on the lower-intensity netwar (1996) continue their explorations, as the information revolution alters the nature of conflict across the board. Netwar is depicted as having two major Janus-like faces: one dominated by terrorists and criminals that is violent and negative, and another evinced by social activists that can be militant but is often peaceable and even promising for societies. The information revolution favors and strengthens network forms of organization, often giving them an advantage over hierarchical forms. Power is migrating to non-state actors, because they can organize into sprawling multi-organization networks (especially "all-channel" networks, in which every node is connected to every other node) more readily than traditional state actors. This means that conflicts may increasingly be waged by networks, and that whoever masters the network form stands to gain the advantage. Information-age threats are likely to be more diffuse, dispersed, multi-dimensional, non-linear and ambiguous than industrial-age threats. "Swarming may become the key mode of conflict in the information age, and the cutting edge for this possibility is found among netwar protagonists." Swarming is a strategic way to strike from all directions at a particular point or points, by means of a sustainable pulsing of force and/or fire (literally in the case of military or police operations, and metaphorically in the case of NGO activists). "Swarm networks must be able to coalesce rapidly and stealthily on a target, then dissever and redisperse, immediately ready to recombine for a new pulse." The Chechen resistance to the Russian army and the Direct Action Network's operations in the anti-WTO "Battle of Seattle" both provide excellent examples.

Chapters discuss challenges for counter-netwar (it takes networks to fight networks), ten recent cases of netwar since 1994, emergence of networked terrorist groups in the greater Middle East (newer and less hierarchical groups such as al-Qaeda have become most active), a listing of nine Web sites belonging to militant Islamist groups, transnational criminal networks (many old-style criminal hierarchies are reorganizing), street-level netwar (urban gangs, anarchists), building a response to networked threats, the Internet's effect on activism (it is a cheap and inexpensive organizational tool par excellence, allowing rapid replication of successful efforts), cyberactivists promoting democracy in Myanmar, the Zapatista social netwar in Mexico (see book with same title by Arquilla and Ronfeldt, FS 21:4/185], netwar running wild in the 1999 "Battle of Seattle", hacktivists and cyberterrorists ("the Internet is clearly changing the landscape of political discourse and advocacy"), and the ambivalent dynamics of netwar. Concludes with a nine-page Afterword responding to the 11 September terrorist attack as "an archetypal terrorist netwar of the worst kind" and a swarming campaign of the al-Qaeda network.

The Next Crisis: Direct and Equity Investment in Developing Countries

David Woodward (Zed Books, London, 2001, 240 pp., £15.95)

Our Virtual World: The Transformation of Work, Play and Life via Technology

Edited by Laku Chidabaram and Ilze Zigurs (Idea Publishing Group, Hershey, PA, 2001, 250 pp., $74.95)

Overcoming Water Scarcity and Quality constraints

Ruth S. Meinzen-Dick and Mark W. Rosegrant (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 30 pp.)

Paradoxes of Prosperity: Why the New Capitalism Benefits All

Diana Coyle (Texere, New York, 2001, £17.99)

Peer-to-Peer: Harnessing the Power of Disruptive Technologies

Edited by Andy Oram (O'Reilly & Associates, Sebastopol, CA, 2001, 432 pp., $29.95)

The Preventive Defense Project

Co-directed by Ashton B. Carter (former Asst. Secretary of Defense) and William J. Perry (Stanford U.; former Secretary of Defense), seeks to promote US defense strategy in the post-Cold War era by modernizing the US security establishment. Most advice on national security focuses on the ends of security and foreign policy. But equal attention and action should also be directed at the means to implement policy priorities. This book addresses the organization and management of the national security establishment, in response to several systemic problems (critical national security missions are being accomplished in an ad hoc fashion by unwieldy combinations of departments and agencies designed half a century ago for a different world; critical underpinnings of quality performance are eroding, DoD personnel are still burdened with the Federal Acquisition Regulations, the US military is not fully exploiting or even staying abreast of the information revolution). Recommendations for action:

1. 1.

   Preserving key strengths under new conditions: exploiting the Internet revolution, taking the next step in joint military capability, preserving the technological edge, preserving the intelligence edge, keeping quality people in uniform;

2. 2.

   Organizing for new missions: interagency program coordination (a key characteristic of new missions such as counter-terrorism and homeland defense is that they cut across departments and agencies), homeland defense (the aftermath of an incident of catastrophic terrorism is "as much to be feared as the attack itself"), better preparation for asymmetric warfare (especially biowarfare defense), organizing to deal with information warfare, strengthening the ability of international organizations and NGOs to perform peace operations;

3. 3.

   Addressing long-standing management problems: reduce wasted infrastructure, a new personnel management system for civilians, transforming the logistics systems, greatly expand the functions for possible outsourcing. Of particular interest are proposals for Regional Under-secretaries "double-hatted" in the Departments of State and Defense, changing the title of Secretary of Defense to Secretary of National Security, and creating a Department of Homeland Protection (which might include the FBI, DEA, INS, Customs Bureau, Coast Guard, National Guard, FEMA, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms).

Prospects for Global Food Security: A Critical Appraisal of Past Projections and Predictions

Alex F. McCalla and Cesar Revoredo (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 71 pp.)

Regulation of Network Utilities: The European Experience

Claude Henry, Michel Matheu and Alain Jeunemaitre (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2001, 365 pp., £45.00)

Shaping Globalization for Poverty Alleviation and Food Security

Edited by Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla and Sherman Robinson (A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment, Focus 8, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 28 pp.)

Splintering Urbanism: Networked Infrastructures, Technological Mobilities and the Urban Condition

Stephen Graham and Simon Marvin (Routledge, London, 2001, 479 pp., £21.99)

Strategic Warfare in Cyberspace

Gregory J. Rattray (The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001, 517 pp., £34.50)

Terrorism and US Foreign Policy

Paul R. Pillar (Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC, 2001, 272 pp., $26.95,FS 23:11/530)

In 1998, President Clinton told the UN General Assembly that "terrorism is at the top of the American agenda – and should be at the top of the world agenda". Opinion polls show strong support for counter-terrorism; one recent survey found 79 per cent of the public saying that this should be a very important goal of the USA. The clear counter-terrorist mission and the support it has engendered underlie "significant counter-terrorist success in the past several years", with lives being saved. But attention needs to be focused on remaining shortcomings. There are real dangers in chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) terrorism, but intense preoccupation with this one contingency has left a host of other important issues starved of attention. Another problem with antiterrorist thinking is a simplistic tendency toward absolute solutions and intolerance of nuance and finesse. This book seeks to explore policy complexities and pitfalls, and to serve as a guide to policy.

Chapters explain the dimensions of terrorism and counter-terrorism, the many different costs of terrorism (in general it has greater psychological impact than physical harm), major effects on foreign policy (the possibility of terrorist attacks inhibits or complicates a wide range of US activities overseas and undermines peace processes), elements of counter-terrorist policy (no single approach can be effective), cutting the roots of terrorism ("conditions do matter" but there will always be a core of incorrigibles such as bin Laden and his inner circle), managing vulnerability, counter-terrorist instruments (diplomacy, criminal law, financial controls, military force, covert action and intelligence, terrorist groups, states that support or facilitate terrorism, and managing public opinion). Terrorism will always be a problem, and "if there is a 'war' against terrorism, it is a war that cannot be won". Counter-terrorism is not accurately represented by the metaphor of a war, because it has neither a fixed set of enemies nor the prospect of coming to a closure. "A central lesson of counter-terrorism is that terrorism cannot be 'defeated' – only reduced, attenuated, and to some degree controlled." Expectations must be kept realistic. Unrealistically high hopes to counter terrorism lead to impatience, and "dashed hopes assist the terrorist in damaging public morale". Unrealistic striving for zero terrorist attacks is no wiser than striving for zero unemployment. "Counter-terrorist programs will prevent many terrorist attacks but will not prevent them all. Terrorism happens. It should never be accepted, but it should always be expected." Planners should think of possible futures of international terrorism, not any single future.

Time and Bits: Managing Digital Continuity

Edited by Margaret MacLean and Ben H. Davis (Getty Trust Publications, Los Angeles, CA, 1998, 84 pp., £7.50)

Tomorrow's Energy: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and the Prospects for a Cleaner Planet

Peter Hoffman (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001, 289 pp., £22.50)

The Unfinished Agenda: Perspectives on Overcoming Hunger, Poverty and Environmental Degradation

Edited by Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Rajul Pandya-Lorch (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 301 pp.)

Who Will Be Fed in the 21st Century? Challenges for Science and Policy

Edited by Keith Weibe, Nicole Balleger and Per Pinstrup-Andersen (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 2001, 102 pp.)

The World Ahead: Our Future in the Making

Federico Mayor (Unesco Publishing, Paris, and Zed Books, London & NY, 2001, 496 pp., $75.00, FS 23:11/542)

The scientific revolution of our time has led us from an age of certainty and dogmatism into an ocean of uncertainties and doubts. The third industrial revolution – all too hastily attributed to globalization by mistaking cause for effect – is radically transforming our societies. This revolution is based on the information age and rapid introduction of new technology into all facets of human life. "Globalization is first and foremost the outcome of the third industrial revolution." It is also in the process of splitting the world into two halves – the world of the "globalizers" (the "one-fifth" society under the hegemony of a self-confident "hyperclass") and the world of the "globalized" (the four-fifths of humanity who are acted on more than they are the actors in their destiny). A specter haunts the world of "the dissociated society": a new age of segregation that has begun to divide society, work, family, schooling, and homeland. In most regions of the world this self-generated apartheid takes the form of new walled cities, calling into question the whole concept of public space and undermining the foundations of the social contract. If humanity wishes to survive the next few decades, it must meet four major challenges: the challenge of peace (a precondition for achieving the other challenges, as we now experience a "hot peace" after the Cold War), the challenge of a new kind of poverty, the challenge of sustainable development and wise management of the global environment, and the challenge of the "drunken boat syndrome" (lack of direction and a long-term plan). Globalization must be humane, and it must be universal. Four contracts should form the pillars of a new international democracy: social, natural, cultural, and ethical. The four parts of this book are devoted to each:

1. 1.

   A new social contract. Priorities to meet the challenge of population growth (education for women, empowerment of women, promoting sci/tech development, new modes of production and consumption, growth with equity), poverty eradication (education is a corner-stone of any long-term strategy), humanizing cities (priority to the right of a dwelling for all, lifelong education for all with focus on the city as a habitat), improved urban transport (priority to public transport, encouraging non-motor transport), women at the center of development (with emphasis on education and rights), winning the fight against drugs (reducing demand, fighting corruption and money laundering, convening a world summit on drugs);

2. 2.

   A new natural contract. Developing with the earth (implement Agenda 21, promote much more ambitious commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions), address desertification (which is largely due to human beings), address water issues (especially more efficient use), promote food security for all, speed up biotech research procedures and put biotech at the service of all, promote renewable energy and energy efficiency;

3. 3.

   A new cultural contract. The Internet as a new social architecture ("a genuine communication revolution", allowing expansion of new ways of teaching and learning), ensure universal access to books and reading, convert libraries into "knowledge centers" open to all sources, protect endangered languages by encouraging bilingualism and trilingualism, promote lifelong education for all, encourage continuing education for teachers and upgrading of their skills, grant a "training voucher" to every individual;

4. 4.

   A new ethical contract. Concerted action to develop Africa (lifelong education for all, democracy and human rights, a real chance for women and children), realize the dividends of peace and global security (reduce weapons and defense budgets, redefine human security, create a World Demilitarization fund financed by a tax on the arms trade), reform the UN (devise new forms of financing, protect human dignity in all its forms), promote a culture of peace (eliminate nuclear weapons, reject violence in all forms, defend freedom of expression and cultural diversity).