Can Rationality of Usda’s Fixed-Event Crop Forecasts be Improved?
Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
ISBN: 978-1-78635-534-8, eISBN: 978-1-78635-533-1
Publication date: 18 July 2016
Abstract
Weak-form rationality of fixed-event forecasts implies that forecast revisions should not be correlated. However, significant positive correlations between consecutive forecast revisions were found in most USDA forecasts for U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. This study developed a statistical procedure for correction of this inefficiency which takes into account the issue of outliers, the impact of forecast size and direction, and the stability of revision inefficiency. Findings suggest that the adjustment procedure has the highest potential for improving accuracy in corn, wheat, and cotton production forecasts.
Keywords
Citation
Xie, R., Isengildina-Massa, O. and Sharp, J.L. (2016), "Can Rationality of Usda’s Fixed-Event Crop Forecasts be Improved?", Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, Vol. 11), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 117-146. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-407020160000011007
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2016 Emerald Group Publishing Limited