Tuesday, May 30, 2017
China is a rising power and potential superpower, the only country that plausibly could one day equal the United States
- The West’s cultural disposition to regard China’s political system as fundamentally illegitimate makes a measure of mistrust unavoidable.
- China’s ‘core interests’ on its borders are more likely flashpoints for confrontation than its growing global interests.
- China-led institutions look unlikely to challenge Western-led institutions head-on but could dilute their importance.
- Economic or political crises at home would make Chinese foreign policy unpredictable and perhaps aggressive.
China’s glowing global interests expose it to new risks and potential for confrontation when its interests conflict with those of established powers. However, domestic concerns dominate Beijing’s policy agenda and China’s foreign policy is extremely risk-averse, shunning military involvement overseas.
A stable international environment conducive to economic development is a priority of Chinese foreign policy -- however, this comes second to regime security and territorial ‘core interests’. China’s policymakers and public see the world through the lens of the country’s experiences as a victim of imperialism, predisposing them to uncharitable interpretations of foreign behaviour and extreme sensitivity to perceived slights.
© Oxford Analytica 2021. All rights reserved. This content contains general information about geopolitical, macroeconomic and social developments or (where stated) other matters. It does not contain advice or recommendations that may be relied on. Where links to external websites are provided, this does not indicate that Oxford Analytica or Emerald Group agree with, endorse or have checked for accuracy the contents of said sites.