Russia will weigh up escalatory options

Significance

President Vladimir Putin’s assertion that permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets inside Russia “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, European countries, are at war with Russia” has focused attention on his possible escalatory options.

Impacts

• Each time a Russian ‘red line’ is crossed, the assumption that Russian warnings are bluffs will become more entrenched in the West.
• Any Russian response will likely increase the risk of direct conflict with the West.
• Perceptions that the risk of war between Russia and NATO is rising could alarm those who think it is time to impose an ‘ugly peace’ on Kyiv.
• Putin’s belligerent rhetoric will concern those within the Russian elite who are more interested in how to end, not expand, the conflict.