Cornered again, Hezbollah will struggle to avoid war

Significance

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said the attacks aimed to pre-empt a military response to a series of deadly explosions of communication devices on September 17 and 18, as promised by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah faces the challenge of constructing a finely calibrated response that restores deterrence without provoking full-blown war.

Impacts

• A ceasefire in Gaza could de-escalate tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, but the prospects for this remain dim.
• A Hezbollah rocket attack on Israel could trigger a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.
• Iranian-backed militias in Iran and Syria could again attack US bases, raising the risk of US casualties.