Japan’s security partnerships will grow

Significance

The tenure of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose successor as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and thus premier will be decided at the end of this month, has been marked by remilitarisation and the institutionalisation of Japan’s defence ties with like-minded partners in response to security concerns relating to China and North Korea.

Impacts

• If Cabinet Minister Sanae Takaichi succeeds Kishida, Tokyo-Seoul ties could suffer due to her more hawkish and nationalist stances.
• Cabinet Minister Seiko Noda would be the most likely to support improved Tokyo-Seoul ties as LDP leader.
• Republican nominee Donald Trump’s re-election as US president would likely erode Japanese-South Korean-US defence relations.
• South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s eventual successor could hold a more hawkish stance towards Japan, undoing improved bilateral ties.