Measurement issues impede tech change impact estimates

Significance

The TUC website “notes with caution” that a June 2024 Citigroup report speculates that “up to 54% of banking jobs and 48% of insurance roles could be displaced by AI.” Estimates of the impact of AI on employment vary widely.

Impacts

• High costs associated with AI adoption could widen the performance gap between large established firms and smaller younger companies.
• AI will require at least as much workforce education and training and restructuring of production processes as ICT did.
• Job losses may be high in occupations highly exposed to AI; these workers may find it hard to retrain or end up in lower value-add jobs.