Russia’s Northern Fleet will struggle to modernise

Significance

It provides access to the North Atlantic and beyond, as well as the strategically important Arctic Ocean and the Northern Sea Route. The fleet plays a key role in projecting Russia’s maritime power and provides the bulk of its sea-based nuclear deterrent force. However, the slow pace of naval modernisation means that the fleet remains dependent on Soviet-era vessels.

Impacts

• The Russian Navy will continue to rely on ageing Soviet-era vessels and will be supported by an even older logistics support fleet.
• The Black Sea Fleet will retain the ability to strike Ukrainian land targets with sea-launched missiles.
• Ageing submarines and surface vessels will increase the possibility of high-profile accidents, which would undermine the navy’s prestige.