North Korea’s economy will worsen without reforms

Significance

However, that growth is a statistical outlier, mostly signalling a recovery from severe COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Meanwhile, China continues to dominate North Korea's foreign trade despite efforts to deepen commercial ties with Russia. That trade has propped up Pyongyang despite entrenched economic issues. Moreover, recent floods threaten this year’s crucial harvest.

Impacts

• The inter-Korean economic gap will continue to widen; South Koreans are 30 times richer than North Koreans.
• Kim’s rejection of aid will not help chronic vulnerability to seasonal flooding, which hurts harvests and infrastructure.
• Given Beijing’s trade dominance, Kim’s reported order that his diplomats ignore China and prioritise Russia could backfire.