Geopolitical cross-currents test Mongolian diplomacy

Significance

While deepening ties with Western and Western-allied powers, Ulaanbaatar has managed to sustain positive relations with Beijing and Moscow and to cultivate good relations with ‘third neighbour’ democracies.

Impacts

• Beijing can be expected to exercise decisive leverage over Ulaanbaatar when it comes to China’s non-negotiable national priorities.
• Russian influence over Mongolia will diminish over the next few years.
• Mongolia will be able to count on solidarity from the United States, as well as European and Asia-Pacific democracies.