Political uncertainty clouds US economic soft landing

Significance

Both Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are increasingly vague about economic policy, meaning that the election is being driven by personalities rather than policies.

Impacts

• Both candidates are keen to try to help lower-income earners but a divided government would make policy implementation trickier.
• After a year looking for slower employment growth, the Fed is no longer seeking cooling, but rather a slowdown that is not too fast.
• If revisions confirm the economy added 800,000 fewer jobs over the last year, this will mathematically raise labour productivity growth.