Nicaragua will keep facilitating US-bound migration

Significance

Facilitating US-bound irregular migration is a lucrative business that provides a source of cash with which President Daniel Ortega can shore up support for his government. It also gives him leverage in bilateral relations with the United States, which is keen to reduce the number of migrants arriving at its southern border.

Impacts

• Nicaragua’s willingness to receive migrants will relieve some pressures on parts of southern Central America, such as the Darien Gap.
• Security challenges linked to illicit economies will increase at the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
• Washington will search for new ways to encourage Ortega to shut down the migration route as sanctions prove ineffective.