Nigeria's government will resist popular pressure

Significance

Security crackdowns against demonstrators led to dozens of deaths and many more injuries. Some protests were also accompanied by looting and property destruction.

Impacts

• Northern discontent may grow due to perceptions of Tinubu’s neglect of the region and the violent crackdown against demonstrations there.
• As discontent grows, state and federal governments may step up clampdowns on civil liberties and political freedoms.
• Removal of tariffs on food imports and security redeployments to agricultural areas may have limited impacts on food prices and production.
• More central bank rate rises are likely in the coming months to counter inflationary and currency pressures.
• The government will be reluctant to walk back its reintroduction of fuel subsidies.