Turkey to keep backing Hamas despite Abbas visit

Significance

The visit follows the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, an Erdogan ally, in Tehran on July 31. It raises the possibility that Erdogan might draw closer to the PA in the wake of pro-Iran hardliner Yahya Sinwar becoming leader of Hamas.

Impacts

• Rhetoric will remain Erdogan’s substitute for action in support of Hamas.
• Public opinion will prevent Turkish rapprochement with Israel for the foreseeable future.
• Restricting exports of Azerbaijani oil to Israel risks antagonising Baku, Ankara’s closest ally.