Virginia shows US Democrats need to focus on turnout

Significance

Virginia was not considered a battleground state this year. It has voted Democrat for president since 2008, and President Joe Biden won it with a 10-point margin in 2020. Yet polling since April shows Donald Trump closing that gap, largely due to a softening of Democratic support, posing a challenge for Kamala Harris.

Impacts

• Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is maintaining a 10-point lead over his Republican challenger in Virginia and should win re-election.
• Virginia’s Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who has recently moved closer to Trump, retains a strong approval rating.
• The experience of Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, with rural issues may help in Virginia, which has some 40,000 farms.