Mali's junta may face stalemate in the north

Significance

This followed claims from Ukrainian military intelligence that it had aided northern rebels in a July 27 ambush in the remote north-eastern locality of Tinzaouatene, which may have cost the lives of up to 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 soldiers of the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa).

Impacts

• FAMa and Wagner Group attacks and massacres close to the Algerian frontier may worsen relations with Algiers.
• The Islamic State-Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) may exploit FAMa’s focus on the CSP to expand its territory.
• Russian reliance on FAMa’s logistical infrastructure will limit their ability to project force in the north.