Disputed Venezuela election leaves uncertain future

Significance

Maduro appears to be consolidating power, but much may happen before the January 2025 inauguration. Washington is walking back from incautious, early recognition of opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez as incoming president. This is an important ceding of diplomatic space to Colombia, Brazil and Mexico as principal interlocutors between the government and opposition.

Impacts

• Ongoing delays in the CNE’s release of comprehensive electoral data will continue to exacerbate political tensions.
• The military will be reluctant to increase repression of protests in working-class areas long associated with Chavismo.
• Pressure from left-leaning regional governments will make it difficult for Maduro to survive any clear evidence of fraud.