US Republicans may struggle to challenge vote results

Significance

The recent improvement in Democratic prospects raises the chance of Republican-led challenges to results in battleground states should Trump lose. A Democratic preponderance of officeholders in these states means fraud claims are unlikely to succeed but they should be expected.

Impacts

• Latest polls show Kamala Harris closing the gap with Trump to 1-2 percentage points (pp) in key states where Biden was 6 pp behind in July.
• Republican legislatures are keeping concern about election integrity alive this year by passing bills presented as a means to prevent fraud.
• Claims that non-citizens are illegally voting in state and federal elections remain unsubstantiated and unlikely.