Immigration will make Irish election a tight race

Significance

Polls have narrowed considerably in the last six months, with the opposition Sinn Fein (SF) losing support due to its ambiguous position on immigration. SF, Fine Gael (FG) and Fianna Fail (FF) -- the three largest parties -- are now separated by just three percentage points in the polls.

Impacts

• Failure to win the election would likely trigger the resignation of SF leader Mary-Lou McDonald.
• Given rising immigration and the prevalence of disinformation, social tensions over immigration will persist.
• Labour’s victory in the recent UK election will help soothe Irish-UK tensions over migrants using the Common Travel Area.
• October's budget -- which is expected to be voter-friendly -- could give the governing parties a pre-election boost in support.
• SF's strengthening position in Northern Ireland does not bring the prospect of Irish reunification closer.