Russia faces mounting challenges in the Arctic

Significance

Moscow’s progress towards achieving its stated goals in the High North -- especially the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the exploitation of its natural resources -- has been complicated by Western sanctions imposed since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the prospective increase in defence cooperation among other Arctic nations.

Impacts

• Moscow will seek to implement Arctic projects and ensure that the war in Ukraine does not adversely impact development timelines.
• The Kremlin will promote cooperation in the Arctic with ‘friendly’ countries, primarily China and India.
• Other Arctic states will continue to negotiate with Russia in multilateral fora, such as the Arctic Council.