South Korea’s ruling party is at risk of poll defeat

Significance

Yoon’s gaffes and misjudgements have cost him support ahead of the polls, although turnout and the impact of third parties remain possible swing factors.

Impacts

• New third parties may hold the balance of power, encouraging compromise but also potentially leading to volatility.
• The president has more leeway in foreign policy, so that will remain Yoon’s priority.
• Both major parties will need to modernise and reform; regionalism is weaker than before, but personalised factionalism remains endemic.