EU will struggle to meet new climate targets

Significance

If approved, the targets will profoundly shape EU economic and environmental policy over the next two decades. The power sector will bear most of the decarbonisation burden to 2040 under EU plans, with renewables displacing coal. While solar adoption has exceeded expectations, the more important wind sector is lagging behind targets for adding capacity.

Impacts

• Pushback from the agriculture sector will further undermine efforts to achieve the 2040 targets.
• The need for low-carbon power looks likely to support a new generation of nuclear construction, primarily in the eastern EU.
• Renewable fuels and gases that can be produced domestically will play an increasingly important role in the EU’s energy mix.
• Electrification, backed by renewables, remains the bedrock of the energy transition and will extend further into all aspects of the economy.