Jihadist growth may accelerate in the Sahel

Significance

Violence also appears to be escalating in Niger since the July 2023 coup there. The ruling military juntas in all three countries have followed the same basic strategy of inconsistent shows of brute force, often involving substantial human rights violations that inflame the conflict.

Impacts

• IS-Sahel may adopt less predatory governance strategies in the Menaka region as its territorial control stabilises.
• Juntas will use worsening security as a justification to postpone transferring power to civilians.
• Improved government aerial capabilities in the form of ground-attack aircraft and drones may lead to increases in civilian deaths.
• Junta counterinsurgency strategies may worsen local-level ethnic conflicts.