Latest US primaries show areas of soft party support

Significance

Both men are now effectively their party’s candidates, ensuring the repeat of 2020 that has long been expected. While either or both could still be replaced, whether for political, legal or health reasons, this is increasingly unlikely.

Impacts

• This year’s very early start to the general election may see more funding channelled to Trump and Biden and away from congressional races.
• California’s Senate primary, a closely watched down-ballot race, produced a two-party contest in November, encouraging Republican turnout.
• North Carolina Republicans chose a controversial gubernatorial candidate who is likely to drive Democratic turnout in the state in November.