Farmer protests will disrupt EU trade relations

Significance

Potential deals with Mercosur and Australia are already in doubt, partly due to agricultural sensitivities, and other projected agreements, for example with Thailand, could also run into similar obstacles.

Impacts

• The next European Commission and Parliament will likely be more sympathetic to farmer interests.
• Farmer opposition could make it difficult for the EU to extend Ukraine’s duty-free access to the EU beyond 2025.
• EU farmer opposition to free trade could embolden farmers in the United Kingdom and the United States, for example, to take similar action.