Voter data presages key battles in South Africa poll

Significance

Consequently, voter registration is anticipated to close on February 23, when the election date is expected to be formally proclaimed. Already, registration data suggests several key challenges for the ruling ANC as it heads towards what may be its toughest election yet.

Impacts

• Ramaphosa’s recent SONA address lacked the populist promises expected in an election year, but these may yet appear in the ANC manifesto.
• It is not yet clear whether South Africa avoided a technical recession in the second half of 2023, but growth will undoubtedly underwhelm.
• Easing inflationary pressures presage rate cuts but electoral risks, geopolitical pressures and external uncertainties may limit the scope.