Pullout from West Africa's ECOWAS bloc may prove messy

Significance

The move builds on a long period of tension between the juntas and ECOWAS over planned political transitions to civilian constitutional rule and intensifying rejection by the juntas of regional and international ties viewed as encroaching on their sovereignty.

Impacts

• Withdrawal from ECOWAS could intensify Mali’s economic isolation.
• Guinea’s junta may now enjoy increased leverage with ECOWAS in talks over its own political transition.
• A parallel pullout from the CFA franc common currency zone is unlikely in the short term and could have disruptive economic consequences.