Taiwan’s new president will be tested

Significance

The election was a major milestone for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which won a third presidential term, a first for a Taiwanese party since direct elections began in 1996. Beijing distrusts Lai and the DPP because of the party’s de facto independence leanings.

Impacts

• Like his predecessor, Lai will ramp up defence and security cooperation with Washington to hedge against China.
• Taiwan will continue to deepen ties not only with the United States but also with other democracies, including Japan and European countries.
• China remains unlikely to attack Taiwan, though it will use various military and economic measures to harm the Lai administration.
• The DPP will continue to seek fruitful dialogue with China’s leaders; these efforts are likely to be rebuffed, as they were under Tsai.
• Japan will continue to bolster its military and cooperate with the United States to aid Taiwan’s regional defence posture.