'Total peace' in Colombia will not materialise in 2024

Significance

Another government ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN) is due to expire on January 29. Bilateral ceasefires foster some stability amid efforts to negotiate with non-state armed groups and advance President Gustavo Petro’s ambition of achieving ‘total peace’. Groups nevertheless continue to fight each other, perpetuating risks of collateral damage.

Impacts

• UN Security Council representatives will visit Colombia in February to review implementation of the FARC peace agreement.
• High levels of insecurity will weigh on Petro's support.
• Maintaining ceasefires with groups that show little prospect of making peace risks strengthening such groups.