Biden will continue to link trade and security in 2024

Significance

Biden is primarily concerned about a loss of jobs in states crucial to his re-election, bid but the reference to national security, more usually associated with concerns about China, illustrates once again how far security has become unquestioningly entwined with US trade policy.

Impacts

• Washington has no desire to resurrect the WTO's moribund disputes resolution appellate court, where some 30 disputes are in limbo.
• The death of the IPEF would remove an avenue via which the United States could secure a deal with Indonesia for critical minerals.
• The Biden administration's sudden withdrawal of support in October for digital free trade will trigger pushback in Congress.
• A second Trump term would see a return to bilateral trade wars in which the United States can leverage its economic strength.