Discontent in east Libya will be quashed

Significance

From the influential Awagir tribe, Bargathi was assured by eastern-based forces that it was safe for him to return to his hometown, but clashes erupted after his arrival. Questions regarding his whereabouts and wellbeing, along with the reported killing of his son, risk long-term stability in eastern Libya.

Impacts

• Foreign investors will be deterred by prospects of instability in the east.
• A weakening of the Haftar-led camp will strengthen the Tripoli-based, internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU).
• Increased instability in eastern Libya will hamper local and international post-flood reconstruction efforts in the region.