South Africa’s demographic shifts will alter politics

Significance

The results show a growing population, and significant demographic shifts within provinces, most notably in the economic powerhouses of Gauteng and Western Cape. However, the results will face some scepticism given the census' extremely high undercount (31%); politicians may thus be tempted to accept results that suit and reject those that do not.

Impacts

• The ANC may claim credit for improved access to services but severe water and electricity shortages will make such triumphalism implausible.
• Despite only modest increases in foreign-born people, xenophobia will again be an issue in the election
• Xenophobic tensions may be greatest in Gauteng, which houses the largest share of the foreign-born.