Ethiopia’s Tigray region faces divisions and dilemmas

Significance

This comes amid escalating turbulence in Tigray’s internal political dynamics, and worsening armed conflict between Amhara rebels and the federal army.

Impacts

• Internal dynamics in Tigray and wider national troubles will likely delay elections to re-establish a post-transition Tigray government.
• The regional administration’s interim status gives Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed leverage, as he has power to remove or reappoint it.
• Internal divisions reduce Tigrayan leverage over Abiy, which has already dwindled amid an apparent softening of Western pressure.