Struggle over Yasuni/ITT will continue in Ecuador

Significance

Debates over the future of oil production in the region have nevertheless continued. President Guillermo Lasso has signalled his intention to maintain production at the fields; the two candidates vying to succeed him in next month’s presidential run-off also appear unsupportive of the initiative.

Impacts

• Efforts to ignore the referendum outcome will further erode faith in democratic institutions and increase political instability.
• The Constitutional Court will play a role in protecting democratic processes, but legal proceedings will be vulnerable to delaying tactics.
• The outcome of the referendum will inspire similar movements elsewhere, as climate change concerns intensify.