US Senate elections look difficult for Democrats

Significance

One-third of the Senate’s 100 seats are contested in each election cycle and those up next year suggest it will be difficult for the Democrats to retain their current 51-49 majority. However, Republicans do not look like reaching the 60 needed for effective control.

Impacts

• Republicans will miss McConnell’s effective fundraising for their Senate candidates if he steps down before the election.
• The possibility of incumbents retiring in the coming months may see additional open-seat contests in November 2024.
• A three-way Senate race appears probable in Arizona, one of a handful of states likely to decide the 2024 presidential race.