Policy tightening could deepen inequalities in Turkey

Significance

Inequalities have increased in recent years and the post-election tightening of fiscal and monetary policy threatens to exacerbate the problem. Children, Kurds, earthquake survivors and Syrian refugees are particularly vulnerable to poverty.

Impacts

• Fiscal, money, credit and income policies will be tightened slowly but may be briefly relaxed ahead of municipal elections in March 2024.
• Poverty and associated social problems such as child labour will persist in some sections of society.
• Members of impoverished groups will continue to require government or other support, while some may be radicalised.
• Earthquake risk, climate change and high rents may affect internal migration, with Istanbul remaining a magnet, and out-migration will rise.