Ukraine’s drones menace Russian and Kazakh exports

Significance

Ukraine looks poised to pursue maritime drone attacks against Russian military vessels and port infrastructure. It is also trying to persuade foreign shipping and insurance companies to disengage altogether from the Black Sea, given the heightened security risks and the deteriorating commercial environment.

Impacts

• Attacks against tankers in the Black Sea could result in large-scale environmental damage to the regional ecosystem.
• Russia will struggle to build a domestic fleet of larger grain carriers to offset the loss of international shipping options.
• Indiscriminate attacks by Ukraine against Russia-linked Black Sea shipping could dent Western support for Kyiv.