Niger's coup risks generating long-term instability

Significance

Senior officers from all service branches then appeared on television declaring Bazoum’s ouster and the creation of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Country (CNSP). Bazoum and his family are confined to the presidential residence.

Impacts

• The evacuation of French nationals from Niamey signals an increased risk of a regional military intervention.
• Lasting EU aid cuts would likely end Niger’s commitment to stemming migratory flows.
• If the junta invites the Wagner Group into Niger, insecurity and rights abuses may rise but Wagner’s political influence will be limited.
• ECOWAS’s choice of non-ECOWAS Chadian leader Mahamat Deby as an envoy may suggest Chad could play a role in a military intervention.