Australia's Indigenous Voice referendum may not pass

Significance

The referendum must now be held by December. If the proposal succeeds, Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders will be recognised in Australia’s constitution for the first time, and have greater input into its governance. The political and administrative bar for referendum success is high, however.

Impacts

• Existing consultative frameworks have been unable to close socio-economic development gaps affecting Aboriginal people.
• The failure to secure a national consensus on Indigenous representation could lead to communal and political divisions.
• A vote against the motion would help revitalise the opposition Liberal/National coalition after losing last year’s general election.