China's appetite for Taiwan war is lower than it seems

Significance

It serves Beijing's interests to exaggerate both. China is developing the capability to seize Taiwan by force, but it does not reveal the circumstances under which it would use it.

Impacts

• There is no reason to doubt Beijing's stated preference for 'peaceful unification', but 'peaceful' would still involve coercion.
• Beijing's claims that it is losing patience should not be taken at face value.
• Chinese military expenditure does not suggest that the government is moving to a war footing.
• There is little to support the idea that China's public is impatient for unification.